Global

    • Israeli strikes in Lebanon have continued despite a US-brokered ceasefire announcement that did not include Lebanon, causing hundreds of casualties and prompting UN condemnation of the actions as appalling. Iran has threatened to withdraw from the agreement, halted tanker movements, and proposed collecting tolls paid in Bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This move violates international trade norms and draws criticism from the UK and others. Israeli forces reported killing the nephew of Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem amid the escalating tensions, while Trump continues peace negotiations with Iran and Israel. Iran's decision here to create a Bitcoin payment tollway is brilliant and personally, I think their response was justified in the wake of continued Israeli aggression in Lebanon. The real question seems to be whether the U.S. will be willing to ruin the global economy and destroy global political stability to ensure Israel is able to conquer the Middle East?

    • Ongoing conflicts are driving up oil and fertilizer prices, sharply increasing food insecurity worldwide especially in vulnerable regions according to the IMF, World Bank, and UN World Food Program. The IMF has highlighted how surging defense spending risks widening global budget deficits and could lead to higher prices alongside slower economic growth. These pressures compound existing challenges and threaten broader stability in international markets. We've discussed the various ways this war has created shocks in every major system and it only makes sense that the major institutions are starting to warn of the catastrophes that will take place if this level of disruption continues.

    • Panama has urged China to show respect following a spike in detentions of Panama-flagged ships tied to port operations and a recent court ruling affecting Chinese involvement in canal infrastructure. The incidents dominated March detentions and raised concerns over Beijing’s influence in Latin America through debt-trap dynamics. Perhaps the Chinese government is not simply the good guys looking to ensure every developing nation becomes developed.

National

    • The Department of War has confirmed that US troops will stay in the region until a lasting deal is secured with Iran and its allies. Defense Secretary Hegseth declared victory in recent ceasefire efforts while Trump threatened 50 percent tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran. Updates from the conflict continue to shape military and diplomatic strategy around the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East stability. This makes sense given the stance of the administration, but it is paramount that we withdraw troops from the region as soon as possible to display we are making a good faith effort to sustain peace with Iran.

    • At a gathering of climate contrarians, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin urged attendees to view recent policy shifts as a clear vindication of long-held positions, including potential repeal of key environmental findings. Allies are pressing Trump to retain Zeldin at the agency amid the event at the Heartland Institute. The speech highlighted ongoing debates over climate regulations and their economic impacts. At the heart of the climate science fight is the ideological capture of the scientific community. Until we can reliably determine that scientists are engaging in open inquiry free of ideological or political pressures, it's going to be hard to create sound policy.

    • A US appeals court has declined to block the Pentagon’s blacklisting of Anthropic, citing supply chain and cybersecurity risks tied to its AI models including the new Mythos system. The ruling rebuffs Anthropic’s latest legal challenge in its battle with the Trump administration. Experts continue to debate the national security implications of advanced AI development and deployment. There has never been a time when the government was unable to oversee such powerful technology and this situation with Anthropic is a good reminder that we are truly in uncharted waters.

Local

(The Midwest)

    • An Ohio man has become the first person convicted under the new Take It Down Act for producing and distributing sexually explicit AI-generated images, including deepfakes used in harassment and sextortion cases. The Hilliard resident possessed over 3,000 such images on his devices and pleaded guilty to related crimes involving non-consensual content. Authorities hailed the case as a landmark enforcement of laws targeting AI-enabled intimate image abuse. One of the biggest questions we face as a society is what are the limits on generating AI content and here we see a clear ruling that creating non-consensual explicit content will get you locked up.

    • Detroit City Council has backed Mayor Mary Sheffield’s 2027 fiscal year budget, which includes big plans for city services despite slowing revenues. The administration is moving forward with enforcement actions against 61 apartments facing serious maintenance issues as part of broader efforts to address housing problems. Sheffield’s initiatives aim to stabilize finances while improving living conditions for residents. I'm worried that once again Detroit's ambitions will outpace its financial capacity and we'll end up with another fiscal crisis in the Motor City.

    • Minneapolis is advancing ordinances that would repeal the existing ban and introduce licensing for adult bathhouses and sex venues where sexual activity is permitted. The proposals would regulate these establishments as part of updates to city code on adult entertainment. So this is a good litmus test for social shifts that are occurring in our most progressive cities. Are we comfortable with sex work being legitimized or are we not?

    • Voters in Indianapolis and Festus, Missouri, ousted several city council members following their approval of data center projects amid local opposition. In contrast, Sangamon County in Illinois has approved a major data center development. One council approver in a separate town faced a shooting incident tied to the controversy, highlighting the intense community divisions over these high-impact tech facilities. Local residents in some areas are clearly fed up with the noise, energy demands, and land use changes these projects bring. As usual we keep an eye on the progress of data centers as the AI revolution seems to completely hinge on their construction.

Market Watch

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
Yes 19% · No 81%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?
Yes 12% · No 88%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
Yes 16% · No 85%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

“It’s used to be stay safe now it’s, stay dangerous” - Nipsey Hussle

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