Global
The EU’s foreign policy chief stated that new members could realistically join by 2030 due to geopolitical shifts from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, praising Montenegro and Albania as frontrunners with minimal financial impact on the bloc while highlighting Ukraine’s remarkable resilience and strong commitment to reforms amid wartime conditions. Ukraine’s president welcomed the European Commission’s report as the best assessment yet, noting readiness to open key negotiation clusters on fundamentals, internal market, and external relations, with an aim to close talks by 2028 despite concerns over anti-corruption independence and Hungary’s blocking of progress. The report also commended Moldova for accelerated reforms despite Russian threats, but criticized Serbia for slowing on freedom of expression and Georgia for serious democratic backsliding, including halting accession talks after crackdowns on protesters and restrictions on fundamental rights. The expansion of the EU is a fundamentally bad idea, and this is especially the case in regard to Ukraine as a potential addition.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to pledge deeper bilateral relations amid turbulent external conditions, emphasizing expanded mutual investment in energy, agriculture, aerospace, digital economy, and green development to foster new growth despite a recent slowdown in trade due to U.S. pressure. Both countries issued a joint statement opposing unilateral sanctions and highlighting shared security interests and people-to-people exchanges including visa-free travel. The meeting built on the 2022 “no-limits” partnership, with Russia seeking to mitigate Western sanctions through enhanced ties, including developing transport centers on borders, as Xi described the strategic choice to advance high-quality development in the face of external challenges. As we see the world reform into a new power structure, the new order will clearly involve deep alignment between Russia and China, especially as they advance BRICS as an alternative to the Western-dominated order that currently exists.
Peru announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Mexico after Mexico granted asylum to former Prime Minister Betssy Chávez, who faces up to 25 years in prison for alleged involvement in a 2022 coup attempt by ousted President Pedro Castillo to dissolve Congress and install an emergency government. Peruvian officials accused Mexico of repeated interference in internal affairs since 2022, including previous asylum grants to Castillo’s family and portraying coup participants as victims, escalating tensions amid Peru’s political instability following recent presidential changes. Mexico rejected the decision as excessive and disproportionate, affirming that the asylum complied with international law and did not constitute intervention, while maintaining sympathy for Castillo’s situation and calling for his fair trial. Mexico appears to be the bad actor from our point of view, and should frankly worry about their inability to keep their streets safe and not governed by cartels instead of worrying about trials in Peru.
National
Voters across states like Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, Pennsylvania, and California are participating in off-year elections, with high turnout reported in areas such as over 1.4 million ballots already in NYC by mid-afternoon and 20% of ballots being submitted in some Virginia counties. Key races include Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, New Jersey’s governor race, and NYC’s mayoral election. Additional races include Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court retention race involving three Democratic justices and California’s Proposition 50 to approve a new congressional map that could add Democratic House seats, countering Republican redistricting elsewhere. With political tensions being higher than ever, these elections will serve as a proxy to measure the political mood in the country.
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the record and set to become the longest ever, stemming from disputes over a Republican clean funding bill versus Democratic demands for enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies to prevent cost increases. The battle has been quite intense with 14 failed Senate votes and bipartisan talks accelerating but no resolution yet. The Trump administration initially threatened to withhold SNAP benefits for 42 million recipients but retracted after court orders, opting to use $4.65 billion in emergency funds for partial 50% payments, causing delays and logistical challenges for states while depleting reserves and avoiding full use of available tariff revenues. Broader impacts from the shutdown include air traffic disruptions from controller shortages, economic recession risks in sectors like housing, halted collection of government statistics, and internal White House debates, with President Trump pushing to end the filibuster and accusing Democrats of politics amid public blame polls and openness to worker backpay discussions.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on whether President Trump exceeded the authority granted under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs by declaring national emergencies over trade deficits, immigration, and drug trafficking, with challengers including small businesses and states arguing it violates congressional power to regulate commerce and fails the “unusual threat” threshold. Lower courts have already ruled against the administration, potentially leading to billions in refunds if upheld, while the White House expresses confidence but prepares alternatives. Small businesses report severe strains from tariffs up to 145%, such as increased costs forcing price hikes and staffing cuts, with the program projected to generate $2.8 trillion in revenue but add over $1,700 annually to family expenses. It appears to us that the executive has this capacity and to exercise these powers, and what is going on is that many are uncomfortable with a president exercising power in this unbridled manner.
City and State
Maryland Governor Wes Moore established a five-member redistricting advisory commission to recommend new congressional maps for fair representation and counter Republican gerrymandering in states like Texas and North Carolina ahead of 2026 elections. The commission will hold public hearings and provide recommendations by year’s end to build support for legislative approval, potentially targeting the sole Republican district in a state where Democrats hold seven of eight seats, despite opposition from the state Senate president over legal risks that could benefit Republicans. This mid-decade effort, modeled on past processes but with a tight timeline, may require a special session and faces court challenges or referendums, highlighting internal Democratic divisions amid national strategies to protect the party’s interests.
Oklahoma enacted House Bill 1217 banning obscene adult performances in public spaces or where minors are present, with violations punishable by up to one year in jail and $1,000 fines, defining obscenity via the Supreme Court’s Miller test and prohibiting municipalities from allowing such events. Lawmakers clarified the intent for preemptive enforcement by local officials and organizers to prevent exposure, targeting activities like drag shows though the attorney general confirmed they are not inherently obscene, potentially chilling protected speech through prior restraint despite continued events without prosecutions. Increasingly, the culture wars have meaningful policy implications, and here in Oklahoma we see an instance of how those battles can unfold.
The Baltimore City Council subcommittee unanimously advanced bills to transfer nearly $113 million to address overspending in fiscal year 2025 across various agencies. Council members questioned transportation officials on specific expenditures like streetlights during the hearing to ensure accountability. While the federal government’s routine overspending is particularly problematic, ignoring fiscal constraints at the lower levels of governments has its drawbacks.
Jefferson County Public Schools is facing a significant budget deficit requiring the sale of investment assets to meet November payroll obligations. The financial shortfall is impacting operational costs and prompting measures to sustain education funding through the next fall. A sell-off of assets to fund the schools is obviously not a sustainable solution, but nonetheless this is an interesting occurrence of a school district trying to manage their finances amid meaningful budget shortfalls.
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